COMPANY PROFILE
Established : 19 oktober 1963
Ticker : HMSP
Major Industry : Tobacco
Sub Industry : Cigarette manufacturers
Share type : common
Employees : 28,800 people
The company operates six cigarette manufacturing facilities at Pandaan, karawang, Malang and Surabaya.
The company contracts production of hand-rolled kretek cigarettes of 37 Third Party Operators (TPO)
There are several subsidiaries of PT HM Sampoerna Tbk:
1. PT. Perusahaan Dagang dan Industri Pnamas
2. PT. Sampoerna Printpack
3. PT. Handal Logistik Nusantara
4. PT. Asia Tembakau
5. PT Sampoerna Air Nusantara
6. PT Union Sampoerna Dinamika
7. PT Taman Dayu
8. PT Sampoerna Joo Lan Sdn. Bhd
9. Sampoerna International Pte. Ltd
ANALYSIS OF COMPANY STOCK RISK AND MARKET RISK
The data of stock return and market return during January 2008 up to September 2009:
Average stock return : -0.000323063
Std. deviation of stock return : 0.031410845
CV of stock return : -97.22823412
Average market return : -2.03317E-06 (-0.000002)
Std. deviation of market return : 0.021789351
CV of market return : -10716.95192
Beta coefficient : 0.158650596
FACTORS INFLUENCE THE FLUCTUATION OF STOCK RETURN AND MARKET RETURN
Factors that influence the HMSP stock during January 2008- September 2009:
1. Fundamental factors of the company
2. The government regulation
3. The sales and profit of the company
4. The business plan of the company
5. The rating of its stock
6. The distribution of dividend
7. The issues that related to the company and its industry
Factors that influence market return during january 2008- September 2009:
1. The macroeconomic condition of the country ( GDP, BI rate, Inflation)
2. Political condition
3. Global market and regional market
4. Blue chips stock
5. Oil prices
6. Profit taking action
7. Financial report of issuer ( Blue chips company)
8. Rupiah exchange
ANALYSIS OF COMPANY BUSINESS PORTFOLIO USING BCG MATRIX
Dji Sam Soe : Cash cows
A Mild : Cash cows
Sampoerna Hijau : Cash cows
Marlboro : Stars
CONCLUSION
The CV of HMSP stock as much as -97.2282 explains that the company has a low standard deviation and it will generate into a low volatility and it reflects into low risk also.
The CV of market index as much as -10716.9519 explains that the market has a low standard deviation and generate a low risk.
The beta coefficient of HMSP as much as 0.1586 shows that the stock will be less volatile than the market, because the beta is less than 1.
The macroeconomic condition of the country has an important figure to the fluctuation of the stock return and market return. the other factors such as fundamental factors of the company also has a contribution in the fluctuation. the positive or negative sentiment come up from external factors like fluctuation of global and regional market and also from internal factors like the economic condition of the country.
Senin, 23 November 2009
Rabu, 09 September 2009
BUSINESS RISK IDENTIFICATION
" JUICE Q-TA"
INTRODUCTION
" JUICE Q-TA"
INTRODUCTION
We can find many businesses in our environment. Business divided to several type, there are consumer goods, telecommunication, mining, banking, food and beverage, transportation, and many more. All type of business wants to get much profit but certainly they will face the risks regarding the factors that affect the business itself. I think it is not easy to deal with the risks. Firstly, the company should know what factors that affects the business, so when the business operate, the company already has the strategy if they face several threats. To manage risks, the company should to identify and evaluate the risks that will be happen and was happened in their business. After that, the company should think the way to handle it and looking for the alternatives. Finally, the company can implement their decision in regarding to minimize the risks.
FRUIT JUICE OUTLETRecently, we can see many fruits juice outlets with different name in the street. The phenomenon of the emergence of juice outlets have become quite promising business for the owners. Fruit juice is a favorite drink by most of our society. Fruits juice outlets offered the same products, it is fresh fruit juice with various kinds of fruits. The market target of fruit juice outlets from children up to adult, because fruits juice can be consumed by all ages. Fruits juice as a healthy drink, recently also becomes to be a trend and life style in modern society. The juice outlet owners can see that this business can provide a good opportunity, because they know that most of our society usually do not have enough a spare time to make their own juice and just a few people can make the juice with good taste. The fruits juice outlets usually placed in several strategic locations, so the customer can easy to find and order the juice with fruits that they want.
JUICE Q-TA
I choose Juice Q-ta as a sample of the juice outlet company. Juice Q-ta made with healthy drink concept with the good quality fruits. The owner is Mr. Doddy Adi Wijaya (25 years old).
The office located at Anggajaya Street, Condong Catur, Depok, Sleman, Yogyakarta. Mr. Doddy spent about Rp 12 Million as his first capital to operate this business. Firstly he only has three juice outlets in three strategic locations, there are at Solo Street, Kaliurang Street, and Magelang Street. In less than six months, the capital can return to his pocket.
Then, he expands the outlets up to fifteen outlets that placed in several strategic points in Yogyakarta city and Sleman. Now, he has 25 outlets and 35 employees. To manage his business, Mr. Doddy assisted by 4 persons as the management team of Juice Q-ta. Each juice outlets of Jus Q-ta can sell about 100 – 130 cup per day. To make a cup of juice needs a fruits and the other materials such as water, sugar, milk, ice and packed with a cup and pipette. One cup of fruit juice contains 330cc, and the average price is Rp 5000 with a good quality fruits such as avocado, apple, pineapple, grapes, pear, tomato, carrots, mangos, soursop, guava, orange, sunkist, strawberry, watermelon, star fruit and many more.
THE FACTORS THAT AFFECT THE BUSINESS AND THE RISK TO BE FACED
1. Fruits and other materials supplies
The company should provide the complete various kinds of fruits and complete materials as ingredients of the juice in every outlet. If the fruits and materials have been out (sold as juice), even it can be a sign that the sales in that day is good, but it also would be a risk for the company, because the outlet cannot make the juice that still ordered by customers. This situation can make the customer moved to other competitor outlets and if it happens continuously will make the number of loyal customers decreased.
2. Electricity
The electricity is one of the vital materials that used in every outlets juice, because electricity is used to turn on the blender. The risk that may face by the company is when the electricity dies or cannot be used, automatically the outlet unable to process the just that ordered by customers.
3. Location
Location selection is important for the future prospects of a juice outlet. The company will face the risk in this factor, if there is a mistake in determining the location for an outlet, that outlet perhaps will bear the high costs caused by several factors such as there are no buyers or just a few buyers and the rent cost is too expensive.
4. Weather and season
Weather and season also determine the sales of juice in a day. Usually during the rainy seasons the sales of juice will be decrease and it will be a risk.
5. Fasting month
In fasting month the company has to face the risk that the demand of juice will be decrease certainly. It is because most of society is fasting. So, the company should to think the strategy to make the juice sales continues to increase.
6. Employees
The employee as human resource of Juice Q-ta has an important figure in every juice outlets. The employees should be friendly to the customers and also should have the good skill to make delicious juice. The risk that will faced by the company in this factors if the turnover level of the employees is high and the dishonest employees with the sales data in their outlets.
7. Competitors and Market price
Many competitors juice outlet make the company has to face with competitive price. The company should follow the price in the market. The risk is if the company always presses their price continuously, so it will be loss. The company should have a strategy in pricing in order to can lead the market.
THE WAY THE COMPANY TO DEAL WITH THE RISK
The company provides two pick up cars to distribute the fruits and the other materials to every outlet. It is also applies if the materials in those outlets are have been out. Usually, this condition happens if the sales in those outlets are over the target. So, in order to service the customer that still orders the juice, the employee in the outlet call the office and asks the materials to distribute as soon as possible. This strategy is to anticipate the customers moved to the competitor juice outlets.
To handle when electricity dies or cannot be used in the outlet, the company directly distribute the ‘genset’ to replace the electricity energy that used to turn on the blender. The company realized that electricity is an important thing that should to handle as soon as possible if it is cannot be used in the outlets.
The location decision of the outlets can be viewed from two things. Firstly, location is determined by looking the proximity to customers, so the customers can easy to find the Juice Q-ta outlets. Secondly, the location decision can be viewed with cost factors consideration such as rent cost, salary for the employees and materials cost. Usually, the company asks their management team to survey the locations. This survey usually takes several months to get the appropriate locations for their outlets. Juice Q-ta choose the strategic places to their outlets such as housing, where people passing by and campus. The strategic location also gives several benefits. For examples, with the queuing effects in crowded places, it can attract the interest of another buyer and could increase the chance of people to visit.
Everyday the management team of Juice Q-ta determines the expected sales in each outlet. This way helps the management team can easily determine the number of material that will distribute to each outlets. To determine the expected sales, usually the management team uses the historical data likes the sales data of the outlet in the day before.
To face the sales when rainy season where the demand is lower, the company decide the expected sales less than usual, because if the company still distribute the number of materials as expected sales in dry season, the company will get loss. Especially for ice, although the ice has been saved in ice thermos, but if the ice left in the long time, it would be melting. So, in rainy season the company decides to set the expected sales lower than in the dry season. Even though the sales will be decrease, but at least the company still can get the profits.
To face the fasting month, the company decide to add the sales hours until tonight in order to recover the sales. Even though in the afternoon the demand is lower, but in the night it will be recover with use the fast break time when the most of society is looking for the fresh drink.
To reduce the level of turnover of their employees, the company applies the reward program. For the employees that have a long time working, the company will gives some fees and will raise their salary. I think this attempt can motivate the employee to work better. To handle the dishonest employees, the company has determined the number of cups and pipette equals with the number of fruits. The company also has the sales report sales that should be filled by the employees in the outlets. So, indirectly the company can monitor the employees by the sales report list.
Competitors and market price should be considered by the company. In the rapid competitive market of juice outlet right now the company decide to minimizes the cost without reduce the quality and quantity of the juice. Fortunately, the company also has a fruit shop and it can build the proximity with the supplier directly. With this strategy the company can get the cheaper price with good quality fruits. When the certain fruits season come up such as mangos, usually the company gives special price as promotion, because they get cheaper price rather than the others, so the price of juice also will be reduced. These attempts can helps the company to face the competitors and market price, so Juice Q-ta still can get much profit even sometimes they should follow the market price.
Risk is condition in which there is a possibility of an adverse deviation from a desired outcome that is expected or hoped for.
The Juice Q-ta company has a good way to manage the risk that they face. They can identify the risks, evaluate the risks and looking for the treatment and alternatives. The company also always reviews and evaluates the daily sales of each outlet. The company realizes that risks can bring the loss for the company. So the company has to deal with pure risks by anticipating the accidental losses and attempts to implement the alternatives strategy to minimize the occurrence of loss.
JUICE Q-TA
I choose Juice Q-ta as a sample of the juice outlet company. Juice Q-ta made with healthy drink concept with the good quality fruits. The owner is Mr. Doddy Adi Wijaya (25 years old).
The office located at Anggajaya Street, Condong Catur, Depok, Sleman, Yogyakarta. Mr. Doddy spent about Rp 12 Million as his first capital to operate this business. Firstly he only has three juice outlets in three strategic locations, there are at Solo Street, Kaliurang Street, and Magelang Street. In less than six months, the capital can return to his pocket.
Then, he expands the outlets up to fifteen outlets that placed in several strategic points in Yogyakarta city and Sleman. Now, he has 25 outlets and 35 employees. To manage his business, Mr. Doddy assisted by 4 persons as the management team of Juice Q-ta. Each juice outlets of Jus Q-ta can sell about 100 – 130 cup per day. To make a cup of juice needs a fruits and the other materials such as water, sugar, milk, ice and packed with a cup and pipette. One cup of fruit juice contains 330cc, and the average price is Rp 5000 with a good quality fruits such as avocado, apple, pineapple, grapes, pear, tomato, carrots, mangos, soursop, guava, orange, sunkist, strawberry, watermelon, star fruit and many more.
THE FACTORS THAT AFFECT THE BUSINESS AND THE RISK TO BE FACED
1. Fruits and other materials supplies
The company should provide the complete various kinds of fruits and complete materials as ingredients of the juice in every outlet. If the fruits and materials have been out (sold as juice), even it can be a sign that the sales in that day is good, but it also would be a risk for the company, because the outlet cannot make the juice that still ordered by customers. This situation can make the customer moved to other competitor outlets and if it happens continuously will make the number of loyal customers decreased.
2. Electricity
The electricity is one of the vital materials that used in every outlets juice, because electricity is used to turn on the blender. The risk that may face by the company is when the electricity dies or cannot be used, automatically the outlet unable to process the just that ordered by customers.
3. Location
Location selection is important for the future prospects of a juice outlet. The company will face the risk in this factor, if there is a mistake in determining the location for an outlet, that outlet perhaps will bear the high costs caused by several factors such as there are no buyers or just a few buyers and the rent cost is too expensive.
4. Weather and season
Weather and season also determine the sales of juice in a day. Usually during the rainy seasons the sales of juice will be decrease and it will be a risk.
5. Fasting month
In fasting month the company has to face the risk that the demand of juice will be decrease certainly. It is because most of society is fasting. So, the company should to think the strategy to make the juice sales continues to increase.
6. Employees
The employee as human resource of Juice Q-ta has an important figure in every juice outlets. The employees should be friendly to the customers and also should have the good skill to make delicious juice. The risk that will faced by the company in this factors if the turnover level of the employees is high and the dishonest employees with the sales data in their outlets.
7. Competitors and Market price
Many competitors juice outlet make the company has to face with competitive price. The company should follow the price in the market. The risk is if the company always presses their price continuously, so it will be loss. The company should have a strategy in pricing in order to can lead the market.
THE WAY THE COMPANY TO DEAL WITH THE RISK
The company provides two pick up cars to distribute the fruits and the other materials to every outlet. It is also applies if the materials in those outlets are have been out. Usually, this condition happens if the sales in those outlets are over the target. So, in order to service the customer that still orders the juice, the employee in the outlet call the office and asks the materials to distribute as soon as possible. This strategy is to anticipate the customers moved to the competitor juice outlets.
To handle when electricity dies or cannot be used in the outlet, the company directly distribute the ‘genset’ to replace the electricity energy that used to turn on the blender. The company realized that electricity is an important thing that should to handle as soon as possible if it is cannot be used in the outlets.
The location decision of the outlets can be viewed from two things. Firstly, location is determined by looking the proximity to customers, so the customers can easy to find the Juice Q-ta outlets. Secondly, the location decision can be viewed with cost factors consideration such as rent cost, salary for the employees and materials cost. Usually, the company asks their management team to survey the locations. This survey usually takes several months to get the appropriate locations for their outlets. Juice Q-ta choose the strategic places to their outlets such as housing, where people passing by and campus. The strategic location also gives several benefits. For examples, with the queuing effects in crowded places, it can attract the interest of another buyer and could increase the chance of people to visit.
Everyday the management team of Juice Q-ta determines the expected sales in each outlet. This way helps the management team can easily determine the number of material that will distribute to each outlets. To determine the expected sales, usually the management team uses the historical data likes the sales data of the outlet in the day before.
To face the sales when rainy season where the demand is lower, the company decide the expected sales less than usual, because if the company still distribute the number of materials as expected sales in dry season, the company will get loss. Especially for ice, although the ice has been saved in ice thermos, but if the ice left in the long time, it would be melting. So, in rainy season the company decides to set the expected sales lower than in the dry season. Even though the sales will be decrease, but at least the company still can get the profits.
To face the fasting month, the company decide to add the sales hours until tonight in order to recover the sales. Even though in the afternoon the demand is lower, but in the night it will be recover with use the fast break time when the most of society is looking for the fresh drink.
To reduce the level of turnover of their employees, the company applies the reward program. For the employees that have a long time working, the company will gives some fees and will raise their salary. I think this attempt can motivate the employee to work better. To handle the dishonest employees, the company has determined the number of cups and pipette equals with the number of fruits. The company also has the sales report sales that should be filled by the employees in the outlets. So, indirectly the company can monitor the employees by the sales report list.
Competitors and market price should be considered by the company. In the rapid competitive market of juice outlet right now the company decide to minimizes the cost without reduce the quality and quantity of the juice. Fortunately, the company also has a fruit shop and it can build the proximity with the supplier directly. With this strategy the company can get the cheaper price with good quality fruits. When the certain fruits season come up such as mangos, usually the company gives special price as promotion, because they get cheaper price rather than the others, so the price of juice also will be reduced. These attempts can helps the company to face the competitors and market price, so Juice Q-ta still can get much profit even sometimes they should follow the market price.
Risk is condition in which there is a possibility of an adverse deviation from a desired outcome that is expected or hoped for.
The Juice Q-ta company has a good way to manage the risk that they face. They can identify the risks, evaluate the risks and looking for the treatment and alternatives. The company also always reviews and evaluates the daily sales of each outlet. The company realizes that risks can bring the loss for the company. So the company has to deal with pure risks by anticipating the accidental losses and attempts to implement the alternatives strategy to minimize the occurrence of loss.
Kamis, 20 Agustus 2009
Senin, 18 Mei 2009
THE COMPARISON AMONG IDX, KLSE, and HKEX
INDONESIA CAPITAL MARKET ( IDX)
The capital market in Indonesia has actually exist long before the Independence of Indonesia. The first stock exchange in Indonesia was established on 1912 in Batavia during the Dutch colonial era. At that time, the Exchange was established for the interest of the Dutch East Indies (VOC).
In 2007, Surabaya Stock Exchange was merged into Jakarta Stock Exchange. As a result, JSX changed its name into the Indonesia Stock Exchange.
The numbers of company listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange are 396.
There are five products that traded in Indonesia Stock Exchange:
1. Equities
2. Derivatives
3. Sharia product
4. Mutual funds
5. Bond
There are eight types of indexes that used by IDX:
- Individual index
- Sector Stock Price Index
3. Jakarta Composite Index
4. Kompas 100 Index
5. LQ 45 Index
6. Jakarta Islamic Index (JII)
7. Main Board Indices
8. Development Board Indices
THE DATA OF MARKET INDEX, MARKET CAPITALIZATION AND VOLUME TRANSACTON
2004 - 2008
| | AVERAGE | DAILY | TRANSACTION | | IHSG | | MARKET | |
| YEAR | VOLUME (Million) | VALUE (Rp Billion) | FREQUENCY (Thousand X) | HIGHER | LOWER | CLOSING | CAPITALIZATION (Rp Trillion) | NUMBER OF EMITEN |
| 2004 | 1,708.6 | 1,204.9 | 15.5 | 1,004.430 | 668.477 | 1,000.233 | 680 | 331 |
| 2005 | 1,653.8 | 1,670.8 | 16.5 | 1,192.203 | 994.770 | 1,162.635 | 801 | 336 |
| 2006 | 1,805.5 | 1,841.8 | 19.9 | 1,805.523 | 1,171.709 | 1,805.523 | 1,249 | 344 |
| 2007 | 4,225.8 | 4,268.9 | 48.2 | 2,810.962 | 1,678.044 | 2,745.826 | 1,988 | 383 |
| 2008 | 3,282.7 | 4,435.5 | 55.9 | 2,830.263 | 1,111.390 | 1,355.408 | 1,076 | 396 |
MALAYSIA CAPITAL MARKET (KLSE)
The Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange which was incorporated on December 14, 1976 as a company limited by guarantee took over the operations of the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange Berhad in the same year.
There are 267 company listed in Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange.
There are five products that trades in KLSE
1. Equities
2. Derivatives
3. Exchange Traded Funds
4. Islamic Capital Market Product
5. Offshore
The market indices are:
1. Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI)
2. Industrial Index
3. Technology Index
4. Sectoral Indices, such as: Consumer product, construction, finance, industrial product, mining, plantation, property, and trading/services.
THE DATA OF MARKET INDEX, MARKET CAPITALIZATION AND VOLUME TRANSACTON 2004 – 2008
| Year | Market Capitalization (RM billion) | Market Index (Rm) | Volume Transaction (billion shares) |
| 2004 | 722 | 907 | 123 |
| 2005 | 695 | 900 | 119 |
| 2006 | 849 | 1,096 | 216 |
| 2007 | 1,106 | 1,455 | 384 |
| 2008 | 664 | 877 | 155 |
HONGKONG CAPITAL MARKET (HKEX)
The history of the securities exchange began formally in the late 19th century with the first establishment in 1891, though informal securities exchanges have been known to take place since 1861.The exchange has predominantly been the main exchange for Hong Kong despite co-existing with other exchanges at different point in time. After a series of complex mergers and acquisitions, HKSE remains to be the core. From 1947 to 1969 the exchange monopolized the market.
There are 749 companies are listed in Hongkong Stock Exchange.
There are 5 products that trade in HKEX:
1. Equity
2. Market access product
3. Exchange traded funds
4. Mutual funds
5. Bonds
The market indices:
1. Hang Seng Hong Kong Composite Index
2. Hang Seng HK Freefloat Index
3. Hang Seng HK 25
4. Hang Seng REIT Index
THE DATA OF MARKET INDEX, MARKET CAPITALIZATION AND VOLUME TRANSACTON 2004 – 2008
| Year | Market Index | Market Capitalization (HK$ mill) | Volume Transaction (Bill shares) |
| 2004 | 15740.43 | 66,716.07 | 51.68 |
| 2005 | 17025.45 | 66,603.74 | 105.94 |
| 2006 | 24378.76 | 88,324.86 | 225.53 |
| 2007 | 33708.99 | 161,080.97 | 310.38 |
| 2008 | 17891.16 | 45,164.18 | 269.50 |
COMPARISON AND CONCLUSION
We can compare the three capital market above with the risk and return principle. We calculate the return and the risk for each capital market. And then we can get the CV for each capital market. We gan get the amount of CV with risk divided by return.
We can conclude for the result of the CV. The lower CV is best to selected.
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